Envisioning Digital Europe 2030: Scenarios for ICT in Future Governance and Policy Modelling

The report Envisioning Digital Europe 2030 is the result of research conducted by the Information Society Unit of IPTS as part of the CROSSROAD Project - A Participative Roadmap on ICT research on Electronic Governance and Policy Modelling (www.crossroad-eu.net ). After outlining the purpose and scope of the report and the methodological approach followed, the report presents the results of a systematic analysis of societal, policy and research trends in the governance and policy modelling domain in Europe. These analyses are considered central for understanding and roadmapping future research on ICT for governance and policy modelling. The study further illustrates the scenario design framework, analysing current and future challenges in ICT for governance and policy modelling, and identifying the key impact dimensions to be considered. It then presents the scenarios developed at the horizon 2030, including the illustrative storyboards representative of each scenario and the prospective opportunities and risks identified for each of them. The scenarios developed are internally consistent views of what the European governance and policy making system could have become by 2030 and of what the resulting implications for citizens, business and public services would be. Finally, the report draws conclusions and presents the proposed shared vision for Digital Europe 2030, offering also a summary of the main elements to be considered as an input for the future development of the research roadmap on ICT for governance and policy modelling.JRC.DDG.J.4-Information Societ

Paving the Way for Future Research in ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling

It took more than several years to persuade governments to change their attitude towards collaborative, evidence-based governance with strong ICT enablement: a decade which included a worldwide economic crisis, radical changes in the socioeconomic landscape imposed not only by wars, but also of the rise and development of countries with huge manpower and natural resources. Public unrest, very low turnover in democratic activities and a growing lack of trust in governments and their policies are currently characterising societies and countries of our world. In parallel, the world has become increasingly interconnected, complex and fast-evolving, making the effects of individual behaviour and of policy choices much less predictable. We are increasingly dealing with highly improbable events and “wicked problems”, which are often characterized as Black Swans since they appear very rarely, with extreme impact and very limited predictability - at least with the tools deployed. Moreover, within the recent financial crisis we experience the failure of governments to predict or drive even more obvious and important societal goals: public sector income, unemployment, growth, standard of living are more and more becoming “wicked problems” themselves, than deterministically sought-for targets. The paradox is that at the same time, the amount of data available to governments for making sense of the socio-economic environment has increased exponentially, either provided through sensors and the Internet of Things, or through crowdsourced citizens’ ideas and criticism posted on social media. Within this framework, the European Commission has decided to launch the CROSSROAD project within the FP7 programme, aiming at building a consensus-driven Research Roadmap to consolidate and advance research in a new, yet highly fragmented, domain and to provide strategic directions for the future of research in ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling. The main goal of the CROSSROAD project has been to drive the identification of emerging technologies, new governance models and novel application scenarios in the field of governance and policy modelling, leading to the structuring of a beyond the state-of-the-art research agenda, fully embraced by research and practice communities, as comprehensively presented in this book. This book is a result of the collaborative effort of several internationally renowned policy scientists, complex system theorists, governance researchers, economists, management science and ICT experts, under the guidance of the CROSSROAD team. Seville, Athens, Brussels, Lausanne and Samos Island have been welcoming venues for this group, offering opportunities for highly innovative and productive brainstorming. But, clearly, the on-line deliberation toolset deployed by CROASSROAD was the key differentiating factor, engaging several hundred researchers, public sector decision-makers, industry representatives and citizens. May we all remember this collective experience in the times to come, a little proud that we tried the difficult road: not to just “do the things right”, but to make an attempt towards “doing the right things” for ICT-enabled Governance and evidence-based decision making.JRC.J.3-Information Societ